Lead Member – Councillor Gwilym Butler – Portfolio Holder for Finance and Corporate Resources

Report of Ben Jay, Assistant Director of Finance & ICT (Deputy s151 Officer)

RESOLVED:

That Cabinet note the following:

a.     That at the end of Quarter 2 (30 September 2023), the current expected level of savings delivery is £38.0m

b.     That savings not yet confirmed, and so under further review to assess deliverability, amount to £13.4m.

c.     That demand-led services are forecasting significant budget pressures of £22.2m in the year, which are likely to continue into the coming year.

d.     The result of A-C above with no further actions is a forecast overall overspend of £32.393m.

e.     That it is assumed for planning purposes that

•  90% of the total savings will be delivered (so £8.2m further delivery expected) and

•  short-term funding will be identified to enable sustainable demand management approaches to be implemented in social care services (total: £20.5m), with necessary plans prepared to enable this.

f.      The resulting forecast at quarter 2 is therefore a likely overall overspend of £3.6m once key management actions, set out above, are implemented. This will leave the General Fund balance at £23.4m, within the target range of £15m- £30m.

The Portfolio Holder for Finance, Corporate Resources and Communities introduced the report which was the largest mid-term outturn report ever reported to the authority and contained a vast amount of detail, giving confidence in the journey and preparation for the challenges ahead.

Members noted that it was difficult for officers to see what the position will be at the financial year end as the figures were projections which can change. It was felt that the Council had to have a plan in place to cover every eventuality, including the use of reserves in the short term, and that the Portfolio Holder was content that 90-95% of the total savings will be delivered.

It was stated that the spending pressures in demand-led services of £22.2m was not an overspend but a shortage in the budget to deal with the level of statutory demand.

Concern was raised over the increasing amount of overspend on staffing due to agency social workers and that alternative budget proposals had been put forward to address this. Members noted that there was a national issue with the recruitment of social workers.

In response to a query regarding the projected outturn for the approved capital programme and the 2023/24 actual YTD spend as percentage of budgeted YTD spend, the Portfolio Holder advised that he would monitor the figures and provide further information to Councillor Dean.

RESOLVED:

That Cabinet note the following:

a.     That at the end of Quarter 2 (30 September 2023), the current expected level of savings delivery is £38.0m

b.     That savings not yet confirmed, and so under further review to assess deliverability, amount to £13.4m.

c.     That demand-led services are forecasting significant budget pressures of £22.2m in the year, which are likely to continue into the coming year.

d.     The result of A-C above with no further actions is a forecast overall overspend of £32.393m.

e.     That it is assumed for planning purposes that

•  90% of the total savings will be delivered (so £8.2m further delivery expected) and

•  short-term funding will be identified to enable sustainable demand management approaches to be implemented in social care services (total: £20.5m), with necessary plans prepared to enable this.

f.      The resulting forecast at quarter 2 is therefore a likely overall overspend of £3.6m once key management actions, set out above, are implemented. This will leave the General Fund balance at £23.4m, within the target range of £15m- £30m.